A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
