Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
